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We have an unusual episode today. One, because of its length (1 hour 40 minutes), and two, because I’m the guest. Joined by Aidan Morrison as acting host, I talk about a topic of intense interest to me: the Darlington SMR project in Ontario, Canada. I’ve been critical of this SMR project, which recently received its final investment decision, by calling for a pivot to CANDU reactors at the site. I use this episode to break down my reasons for being critical, and to concede ground to this bold SMR project where earned. This is not the first place I’ve shared my reasoning, but it is the most in-depth. If you have time to listen to the full thing, I promise you will leave quite knowledgeable about the ambitious and capable Ontario nuclear sector, which I’ve studied and engaged with for years. Prompting this episode was the OPG’s final investment decision on the SMR and the revelation of its eye-watering cost estimates. I break down the $4.5 billion price tag for the first unit, the expected learning that will take place, and share why this represents not just a technical and economic challenge, but a strategic mistake that could undermine Canada’s competitive advantage in nuclear power. From the massive excavation challenges of burying a reactor ten stories underground to the national security risks of abandoning proven CANDU technology for American designs, I hope to share some of the hard truths behind the SMR hype. Episode title on podcast players: Small Reactor, Big Price Read longer shownotes on Decouple's Substack: https://www.decouple.media/p/small-reactor-big-price Listen to Decouple on: • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4 • Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple • Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44 • RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rss Website: https://www.decouple.media Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 5:20 Background on Canadian nuclear 18:03 SMR selection 21:11 BWRX-300 final investment decision 31:38 Why costs escalated 46:33 Obstacles to learning and seismicity 52:21 Exports and geopolitics 1:11:20 Economics and energy transition 1:30:08 A path forward with CANDU

This week, we return to nuclear power. Specifically, nuclear construction and “learning curves.” It is intuitive that doing something over and over makes you better at it. In industry, this means driving down costs and timelines and boosting efficiencies. In many industries, the truth of learning curves is readily apparent. However, in Western nuclear construction it has been largely absent for decades. Robbie Stewart, CTO of Alva Energy, joins me to dissect why the nuclear industry struggles with what other industries take for granted, and highlight a few cases in nuclear that managed to buck this trend. From France's standardized reactor fleet to China's recent AP1000 acceleration, we explore the prerequisites for nuclear construction learning and why it takes more than just good engineering. We talk about: • Wright's Law and its application (or misapplication) to nuclear construction • Why nuclear is fundamentally different from factory-floor manufacturing • The three categories of nuclear learning: fixing mismanagement, technology insertion, and construction optimization • Statistical analysis of what drives successful learning rates in nuclear programs • France's P4 series and South Korea's OPR-1000 as learning success stories • China's dramatic improvements in AP1000 construction times through supply chain mastery • The critical role of integrated project management and utility ownership • Prerequisites for learning: standardized design, sequential builds, and institutional commitment • Why inter-site learning is harder than intra-site learning • The developer model as a potential solution for geographic learning constraints • Ontario's SMR program as a test case for modern nuclear learning Episode title on podcast players: Is Wright's Law Wrong? Read extended shownotes on Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/decouple/p/is-wrights-law-wrong Listen to Decouple on: • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4 • Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple • Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44 • RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rss Website: https://www.decouple.media

This week, I’m joined by Kyle Chan, author of the recent NYTimes Op-Ed titled "In the Future, China Will Be Dominant. The U.S. Will Be Irrelevant." Exploring the intense competitive pressures of Chinese “involution capitalism” and America’s fixation on shareholder returns, we discuss America’s waning relevance in global technology and manufacturing, and how critical choices made now could shape the economic and geopolitical landscape for decades. Chan is a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University, an adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation, and the author of the High Capacity newsletter. Subscribe to High Capacity: https://www.high-capacity.com/subscribe Read Chan's NYT Op-Ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/opinion/china-us-trade-tariffs.html Listen to Decouple on: • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4 • Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple • Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44 • RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rss Website: https://www.decouple.media Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 4:35 Chan's Op-Ed 9:38 China's serious challenges 15:10 Turing weaknesses to strengths 19:30 Involution vs stock-buyback capitalism 26:31 Price declines in solar, batteries, etc. 31:12 Leading with clear industrial policy 35:58 Comparing the Chinese and US economies 38:52 Economic complexity index 43:56 Does America have any hope? 54:44 America's obsession with celebrity entrepreneurs 58:46 The role of the giant corporation 1:02:38 What revolutions will happen?

This week, I’m joined by Patrick McGee, a journalist and author of "Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company." The book is an in-depth corporate history which examines one of the most important symbioses in economic history. It explains Apple's meteoric rise in market capitalization/revenue, as well as China's newfound dominance in precision manufacturing. McGee argues convincingly that neither outcome would have happened without this relationship. To back up this extraordinary claim, McGee closely maps how Apple systematically sent top engineers from around the world to train up hundreds of factories in China, pressed for demanding specifications at “ridiculously high yield,” and invested sums directly into China that made the post-WW2 Marshall Plan look small. The result? China now leads in 57 of 64 critical technologies, as measured by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, dominating everything from smartphones to electric vehicles. As Trump threatens iPhone-specific tariffs and Tim Cook promises impossible reshoring timelines, Apple finds itself captured by the very system it helped create. Having accidentally armed its greatest competitor, there is no clear pathway for the U.S. to regain the lead it helped China take. --- Find transcripts, extended shownotes, and more at: https://www.decouple.media Episode title on podcast players: "Tim Cook, Nation-Builder" --- Listen to Decouple on: • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4 • Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple • Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44 • RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rss Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 02:41 How China dominated tech 07:03 Apple, the teacher 10:06 Talent and technology transfer 12:28 Why Apple chose China 18:29 The iPhone product 21:25 Why the U.S. can't copy China's success 31:40 Indigenizing knowledge 33:41 The Yellow Cow Scam 41:07 Does China still need Apple? 46:40 Dwarfing government-led programs 48:17 The impossibility of reshoring 52:44 Tariffs 56:29 A symbiosis without precedent? 59:55 Outro

Last week, U.S. President Trump signed four executive orders to accelerate nuclear power deployment: 1. Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security 2. Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base 3. Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission 4. Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of Energy To help us understand the implications of these executive orders, I was joined by Thomas Hochman, director of infrastructure policy at the Foundation for American Innovation. We discuss the policy shifts needed to bridge political divides and streamline regulation as the U.S. grapples with rising energy demands driven by artificial intelligence and national security concerns. Are these executive orders enough? Is America’s nuclear resurgence is feasible, or merely rhetorical, amidst a competitive global landscape dominated by China and Russia? Listen to Decouple on: • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4 • Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple • Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44 • RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rss Website: https://www.decouple.media Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 2:48 A flurry of executive orders 8:08 DOE Loan Programs Office 15:30 Why now? 20:48 Where is the U.S. nuclear sector, really? 23:23 Nuclear at the Department of Defense 27:06 Political considerations 37:33 Implementation of the executive orders 39:13 Industrial Policy 44:50 Is nuclear now a “need to have?” 47:18 EO miscellany 48:58 Permitting reforms 56:33 Outro

This week, we look beyond the physical infrastructure supporting our lives to the owners taking over that infrastructure: asset managers. Brett Christophers, an author, professor, and economic geographer at Uppsala University in Sweden, joins me to explore the troubling transformation of infrastructure ownership in today's economy. From housing to energy to water, massive asset management firms like Blackstone and Brookfield have positioned themselves more and more between citizens and essential services, extracting wealth while taking minimal risk. Christophers explains how this shift from public to private control has reshaped our relationship with everyday infrastructure, particularly as we attempt to transform our energy supplies. He argues that the profit-driven approach of these financial giants is at odds with the public good, creating a system where even as things like renewable technology get cheaper, their deployment slows due to insufficient returns for investors. Title on podcast players: "No Risk, All Reward" Brett Christophers' latest book: https://www.versobooks.com/products/3069-the-price-is-wrong?srsltid=AfmBOopwR9QklGy6D5cDUvovf1JNLEnhRATGpYnVuHRgCUIepwCbyXLt Listen to Decouple on: • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4 • Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple • Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44 • RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rss Website: https://www.decouple.media Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 05:53 A shift in ownership 11:05 The false narrative of efficiency 15:01 Who benefits? 22:04 Short-termism 28:31 Using other people's money 34:21 Incentives (or lack thereof) to build new infrastructure 46:16 Renewables 1:02:11 The impacts of deregulated electricity markets 1:06:25 ESG and subsidies 1:08:52 Outro

In the wake of Europe's largest blackout in decades, commodities investor Alexander Stahel helps us to understand the physics of power grids, and how Spain's celebrated renewable transition became its Achilles' heel. He introduces the “hellbrise” phenomenon—excessive, rather than too little, renewable generation—as he considers the role of grid inertia in preventing minor disruptions from cascading into failures in mere seconds. Spanish energy policy isn’t the first time that green idealism has brushed over the fundamental requirements of reliable electricity, and it is unlikely to be the last. But it has certainly provided a stark example of the dangers that await such an oversight. Read Alexander Stahel's essay: https://www.thecommoditycompass.com/p/europes-largest-blackout-exposes Episode title on podcast players: Hellbrise Website: https://www.decouple.media Listen to Decouple on: • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4 • Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple • Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44 • RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rss Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 05:17 What is Hellbrise? 14:53 Troubles with distributed generation 18:42 Grid 101 22:11 The Grid as civilizational life support 27:10 Grid inertia 31:24 The Iberian blackout 40:30 Blackout responses and paths forward 49:36 Electricity and idealism 1:02:08 How fixable is the grid? 1:05:00 Support Decouple